IPAID

Institute for Poverty Alleviation and
International Development

Yonsei University

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Volume 6 Number 1 June 2015
How do Ex Ante Simulations Compare with Ex Post Evaluations? Evidence from the Impact of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
Author_ Phillippe LEITE, Ambar NARAYAN & Emmanuel SKOUFIAS
Pages 1-43
Abstract_ We compare the ex ante simulation of the impacts of conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs against the ex post estimates of impacts obtained from experimental evaluations. Using the data on program-eligible households in treatment areas from the same baseline surveys used for the experimental evaluations of CCT programs in Mexico and in Ecuador, we use a micro-simulation model to derive ex ante estimates of the impact of the programs on enrollment rates and poverty. Our estimates reveal that ex ante predictions of certain impacts of CCT programs using the micro-simulation model match up well against the benchmark estimates of ex post experimental studies. The findings seem to support the use of this model to assess the potential impact and cost efficiency of a CCT program ex ante, for the purpose of informing decisions about the design of the program.
Keywords_ Conditional Cash Transfers, Micro-simulation, Experimental evaluation
 
Volume 6 Number 1 June 2015
How Did East Asian Countries Overcome the Food Problem? The Experiences of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Indonesia
Author_ Richard GRABOWSKI
Pages 44-75
Abstract_ This paper develops a semi-open dualistic model of the development process. Within this context rapid structural change and development is likely to be stymied by low productivity in staple food production. This will result in labor being relatively expensive, even when it is physically abundant. Thus solving the food problem is essential for successful economic development. However, different countries have resolved this problem in very different ways. The experiences of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia are used to illustrate the problem and the different ways each country has evolved to solve it. These experiences have implications for today’s developing countries.
Keywords_ Food problem, Agriculture, Structural change, East Asia, Southeast Asia
 
Volume 6 Number 1 June 2015
On a New Path: Microfinance as a Tool to Help Bedouin Women Extricate Themselves from Poverty in Israel
Author_ Nuzha ALLASSAD ALHUZAIL
Pages 77-107
Abstract_ The lives of Bedouin women in Israel who live in poverty are complex and difficult. They suffer from dual discrimination—by the Bedouin society in which they live and by the state of which they are citizens. Microfinance provides a tool with which these women can improve their lives. Based on in-depth interviews with 15 Bedouin women participating in a microfinance program, this study finds that their efforts to extricate themselves from poverty perpetuate the polarity of their lives: they experience personal strengthening in the process of gaining economic independence, but also the weakening of family support during that process. The women must also overcome a lack of state support for their business initiatives. Nevertheless, these women are able to manage these difficulties and improve the conditions of their lives. In the process, they became important agents of change in Bedouin communities and in the wider society of Israel.
Keywords_ Bedouin women, Poverty, Microfinance, Microcredit, Social change, Bedouin society, Negev
 
Volume 6 Number 1 June 2015
The Determinants of Non-Farm Income Diversification in Rural Ethiopia
Author_ Zerihun Berhane WELDEGEBRIEL, Giuseppe FOLLONI & Martin PROWSE
Pages 109-130
Abstract_ Diversification has long been viewed as a risk minimization strategy in the face of increasing climatic and economic risks in developing countries. This paper examines the determinants of non-farm income diversification in rural Ethiopia for a four-wave panel of 1240 households from the Ethiopian Rural Household Survey over the period 1994–2009. The paper makes a conceptual distinction between non-farm and off-farm income and uses fixed and random-effects models to control for unobserved characteristics. The results suggest that the variables that determine non-farm diversification—consumption per capita and livestock holdings—belong to pull factors and reflect a strategy by wealthier households. Coupled with instrumental variable estimations to ascertain the direction of causality, these findings lend support to the argument that the main motivation for increasing non-farm diversification is likely to be accumulation.
Keywords_ Non-farm diversification, Fixed and Random-effects, Rural Ethiopia
 
Volume 6 Number 1 June 2015
Impact of Smoking on Nutrition and the Food Poverty Level in Tanzania
Author_ Asmerom KIDANE, John MDUMA, Alexis NAHO, & Teh Wei HU
Pages 131-149
Abstract_ This study considers the effect of household cigarette expenditure on food poverty indicators in Tanzania. We first compare expenditure patterns as well as the household size of non-smokers and smokers. We find that the majority of non-smokers and smokers have low incomes, and that the mean total per capita expenditure (proxy for income) of non-smokers is slightly higher than those of smokers. On the other hand, the mean household size of non-smokers was smaller compared to that of smokers suggesting that smokers should have spent more on food. Next, we estimate and compare daily calorie intake between both groups. Almost 19 percent of non-smokers were found to be below the poverty line. The corresponding value for smokers was almost 24 percent. Estimates from a multiple linear regression on the determinants of per capita daily calorie intake reveal that per capita cigarette consumption appears to negatively affect daily calorie intake significantly. Given that the majority of all respondents belong to a low income group, this suggests that expenditure on cigarettes may be at the expense of calorie intake.
Keywords_ Smoking, Nutrition, Calories, Poverty, Tanzania
 
 
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IPAID

Institute for Poverty Alleviation and International Development (IPAID) at Yonsei University

1, Yonseidae-gil, Wonju-si, Gangwon-do, South Korea

강원도 원주시 연세대길1 연세대학교 원주캠퍼스 정의관 316호 빈곤문제국제개발연구원

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